Bohemians 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.

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Full Analysis

Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 1). Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Bohemians have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Shamrock Rovers away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 0.90 PPG clear of Bohemians over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bohemians, 1 for Shamrock Rovers and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2024, ended Bohemians 0–1 Shamrock Rovers — a Shamrock Rovers win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 42% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.15 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.950 / defence 1.070 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.006 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.131. Data: built from Bohemians's last 36 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 31% | Draw 34% | Shamrock Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.19 | Draw 2.96 | Shamrock Rovers 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 80% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Bohemians 36 games, Shamrock Rovers 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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