Bohemians 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 29). Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Bohemians have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shamrock Rovers away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shamrock Rovers are 0.80 PPG clear of Bohemians over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 39% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 50% versus Shamrock Rovers 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 45% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.857 / defence 1.351 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.064 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 0.957. Bohemians's defence rating of 1.351 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shamrock Rovers's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 62 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 62.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 26% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.84 | Draw 3.36 | Shamrock Rovers 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 50% (last 10 home games) | Shamrock Rovers 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 29 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 26% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Bohemians 1.00 / Shamrock Rovers 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.857 / def 1.351 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.064 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.322 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 29) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.86x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.06x) against Bohemians's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 62 games and Shamrock Rovers's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.84
30%
3.36
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.38
1.38
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
7%
15.21
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.38 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians's recent record stands at 23W 18D 21L from 62 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 11L across 62 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Bohemians against 1.79 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 13W 8D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 12W 12D 7L across their last 31 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.65 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Bohemians (Home) vs Shamrock Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 23W 18D 21L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 30W 21D 11L in their last 62 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.52 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Shamrock Rovers have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
0
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 55%, Shamrock Rovers 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians) and 32% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 48%; Bohemians have failed to score in 26% of games; Shamrock Rovers in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Shamrock Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Bohemians's recent matches and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians's recent games and 32% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Bohemians's recent matches and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.00 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.38 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 26% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 44%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 45%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.40 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.