Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Finn Harps travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians in Premier Division (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bohemians have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Finn Harps have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.00 PPG, Finn Harps 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Finn Harps and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2022, ended Bohemians 2–0 Finn Harps — a Bohemians win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 62% versus Finn Harps 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 51% | Finn Harps 62%). Note also that Finn Harps surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Bohemians recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.76 xG and Finn Harps 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.835 / defence 1.049 | Finn Harps attack 0.863 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.076. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.585 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians's last 69 games and Finn Harps's last 69.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.26 | Finn Harps 4.81. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 40% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 34 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 October 2022 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Bohemians 1.76 / Finn Harps 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.835 / def 1.049 | Finn Harps attack 0.863 / def 1.585 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Finn Harps xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Finn Harps FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Finn Harps kick off?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 21 October 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Bohemians vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Finn Harps part of?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 34) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 56% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Finn Harps will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.83) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 69 games and Finn Harps's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.26
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.73
0.97
Finn Harps xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
27.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Finn Harps Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.97 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 25W 19D 25L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Finn Harps's form line: 15W 18D 36L from 69 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 34 home games (15W 8D 11L).
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 7W 8D 19L from their last 34 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.07 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs Finn Harps (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs Finn Harps Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 games (1.36 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 15W 18D 36L in their last 69 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Finn Harps away?
Bohemians's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.56 PPG; Finn Harps away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 21 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won Bohemians 4-0 Finn Harps.
Bohemians's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Finn Harps H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 3, Finn Harps have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Finn Harps last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 October 2022: Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 62%, Finn Harps 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Bohemians and 76% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs Finn Harps Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and Finn Harps matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bohemians's games and 59% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians and Finn Harps matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Bohemians's matches and 76% of Finn Harps's.
Do Bohemians and Finn Harps matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bohemians's recent matches and 79% of Finn Harps's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Finn Harps share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 34, as Bohemians and Finn Harps drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.76 xG and Finn Harps 0.97 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Finn Harps outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Finn Harps attack 0.86 / defence 1.58, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 51%, Finn Harps 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.