Bohemians 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 41%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Dundalk meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 July 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Dundalk (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Dundalk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Dundalk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 47% versus Dundalk 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 45% | Dundalk 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.27 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.817 / defence 1.228 | Dundalk attack 0.908 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 0.939. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Bohemians games / 60 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Dundalk 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Bohemians 1.27 / Dundalk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.817 / def 1.228 | Dundalk attack 0.908 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.263 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dundalk xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Dundalk kick off?
Bohemians vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 July 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Bohemians vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Dundalk part of?
Bohemians vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 41% chance of winning, Dundalk a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bohemians and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in?
Bohemians (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.91x) against Bohemians's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 58/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.57
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.32
1.05
Dundalk xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.05 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 15D 20L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (22W 13D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Bohemians against 1.36 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians's home form reads 13W 7D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 0.97 points per game from 29 outings (8W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 22W 13D 23L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Dundalk away?
Bohemians's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.59 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Dundalk in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Dundalk have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Dundalk?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 52%, Dundalk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Bohemians) and 41% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Bohemians have failed to score in 28% of games; Dundalk in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bohemians's recent matches and 48% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Bohemians's recent games and 41% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Dundalk tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 25, as Bohemians and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.27 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.82 / defence 1.23 against Dundalk attack 0.91 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 41% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 30%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 45%, Dundalk 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.45 PPG, Dundalk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.