Bohemians 2-3 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalymount Park plays host to Bohemians versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 1 July 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 4W 4D 2L at Dalymount Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derry City (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bohemians, 1.30 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 66% and Derry City 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 54% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.13 xG and Derry City 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.096 / defence 1.049 | Derry City attack 1.186 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.062. Data: 56 Bohemians games / 57 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Derry City 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Bohemians 70% | Derry City 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jul 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Derry City 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1.13 / Derry City 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.096 / def 1.049 | Derry City attack 1.186 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Derry City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Derry City xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Derry City kick off?
Bohemians vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 July 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Bohemians 2 - 3 Derry City.
Where is Bohemians vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Derry City part of?
Bohemians vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, Derry City a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Derry City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.19x) against Bohemians's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
32%
3.15
27%
3.68
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.45
1.32
Derry City xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.32 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 20W 18D 18L from 56 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 13L across 56 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Bohemians against 1.62 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 13W 7D 7L from 27 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derry City's away record stands at 14W 6D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.78 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.50 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Derry City in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Derry City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Derry City have gone 24W 19D 13L in their last 56 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.70 PPG; Derry City away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, Derry City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bohemians) and 52% (Derry City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 59% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bohemians's matches and 52% of Derry City's.
Do Bohemians and Derry City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derry City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Bohemians 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 2-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.13 xG and Derry City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derry City outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Derry City attack 1.19 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 27% | Derry City 41%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 54%, Derry City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.39 PPG, Derry City 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.