Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours PAOK (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Volos NFC face PAOK.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadium in Super League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Volos NFC stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

In front of their own supporters, Volos NFC have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Volos NFC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

PAOK — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, PAOK have the better record in our head-to-head data — 8 wins from 9 H2H matches against 1 for Volos NFC.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Volos NFC 0–3 PAOK — a PAOK win.

The H2H data backs the away side. PAOK have won 8 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Volos NFC trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

PAOK trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 46% versus PAOK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 47% | PAOK 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.86 xG and PAOK 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.818 / defence 1.178 | PAOK attack 1.298 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. PAOK bring a tight defence (rating 0.781, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Volos NFC's projected output down. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.298, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 51 games and PAOK's last 51.

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 18% | Draw 27% | PAOK 55%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 5.69 | Draw 3.69 | PAOK 1.81. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 60% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 40% (last 10 away games).

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