Volos NFC 1-5 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Volos NFC welcome PAOK to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 2W 2D 6L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Volos NFC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAOK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, PAOK have the better historical record — 5 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Volos NFC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
PAOK trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 41% versus PAOK 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 56% | PAOK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.13 xG and PAOK 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.800 / defence 1.243 | PAOK attack 1.602 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.231. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.602 — the away xG of 2.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Volos NFC games / 44 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | PAOK 1.52. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 2.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 60% | PAOK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 63% | xG Volos NFC 1.13 / PAOK 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.800 / def 1.243 | PAOK attack 1.602 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: PAOK (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
2.45
PAOK xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs PAOK kick off?
Volos NFC vs PAOK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Volos NFC 1 - 5 PAOK.
Where is Volos NFC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs PAOK part of?
Volos NFC vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 15% chance of winning, PAOK a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Volos NFC and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
Record (5 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 5W.
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.80x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 2.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
15%
6.52
19%
5.27
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
3.58
2.45
PAOK xG
6.52
15%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
9%
11.59
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
1%
75.59
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Volos NFC and 2.45 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 14W 12D 28L from 54 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 32W 12D 10L across 54 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 7W 3D 16L from 26 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 12W 8D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.94 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and PAOK in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 32W 12D 10L in their last 54 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.92 PPG; PAOK away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, PAOK in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and PAOK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
0
Draws
8
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, PAOK have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 46%, PAOK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Volos NFC) and 54% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK in 35%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 50% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Volos NFC's matches and 54% of PAOK's.
Do Volos NFC and PAOK tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Volos NFC 1-5 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.13 xG and PAOK 2.45 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 2.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against PAOK attack 1.60 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 15% | Draw 19% | PAOK 66%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 56%, PAOK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Volos NFC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.