Volos NFC 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Match Analysis

Volos NFC host Olympiakos Piraeus at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 17 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Volos NFC have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Volos NFC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Olympiakos Piraeus's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 1.70 (Olympiakos Piraeus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

Olympiakos Piraeus have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Volos NFC.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Volos NFC 0–3 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Volos NFC trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 58% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 61% | Olympiakos Piraeus 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Volos NFC surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Olympiakos Piraeus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.50 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.960 / defence 1.067 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.045 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.376. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 26 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 36% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 37%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.82 | Draw 3.63 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.53) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Olympiakos Piraeus 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 80% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Volos NFC 26 games, Olympiakos Piraeus 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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