Volos NFC 0-2 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Larisa travel to Panthessaliko Stadium to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Larisa have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.30 PPG, Larisa 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Volos NFC have won 1, Larisa 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 5–2 with Volos NFC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Larisa in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus Larisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 50% | Larisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Larisa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.791 / defence 1.150 | Larisa attack 0.769 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.082. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Larisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Volos NFC games / 18 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 45% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Larisa 3.70. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 45% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Volos NFC 1.33 / Larisa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.791 / def 1.150 | Larisa attack 0.769 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Larisa xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Larisa kick off?
Volos NFC vs Larisa kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Larisa?
Volos NFC 0 - 2 Larisa.
Where is Volos NFC vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Larisa part of?
Volos NFC vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 45% chance of winning, Larisa a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Volos NFC and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Larisa?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 0 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Volos NFC and Larisa in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Larisa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.79x the league average against Larisa's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Larisa's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.59
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.96
Larisa xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.96 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 8W 1D 9L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Larisa's form line: 3W 7D 8L from 18 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Volos NFC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Larisa.
Venue Form
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Larisa in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 8W 1D 9L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Larisa have gone 3W 7D 8L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Larisa away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.62 PPG; Larisa away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
0
Draws
1
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Larisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Larisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-2 Larisa.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Larisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Volos NFC) and 50% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Larisa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 50% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Volos NFC's recent games and 50% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Larisa tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Larisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Larisa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa beat Volos NFC 0-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.33 xG and Larisa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Larisa outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Larisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 45% | Draw 28% | Larisa 27%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Larisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Larisa's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Larisa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Larisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.