Volos NFC 3-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Thursday 23 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 3.00 PPG across 2 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 0D 0L. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.50 in Volos NFC's favour (3.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.94 xG and Atromitos 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 1.120 / defence 1.189 | Atromitos attack 0.729 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 0.871 / away 0.855. Data: 2 Volos NFC games / 2 Atromitos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 39% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 27%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Atromitos 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Atromitos's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.68 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 39% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Volos NFC 0.94 / Atromitos 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 1.120 / def 1.189 | Atromitos attack 0.729 / def 0.968 | league avg home 0.871 / away 0.855 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Atromitos xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Atromitos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Volos NFC 3 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Atromitos part of?
Volos NFC vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 39% chance of winning, Atromitos a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Volos NFC and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Volos NFC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.73x) against Volos NFC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.94
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
1.68
0.74
Atromitos xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.74 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Volos NFC are the form team by 2.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atromitos.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Volos NFC are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Volos NFC's scoring rate against Atromitos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atromitos in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Volos NFC or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Atromitos in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won 0-3 on 19 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
3
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Atromitos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Atromitos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Volos NFC's games and 50% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Volos NFC's matches and 50% of Atromitos's.
Do Volos NFC and Atromitos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Atromitos 3-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.94 xG and Atromitos 0.74 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 1.12 / defence 1.19 against Atromitos attack 0.73 / defence 0.97, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 39% | Draw 34% | Atromitos 27%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 100%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Volos NFC conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.