PAS Giannina 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Asteras Tripolis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
PAS Giannina — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Asteras Tripolis have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Asteras Tripolis are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Asteras Tripolis trading profile (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 55% versus Asteras Tripolis 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 45% | Asteras Tripolis 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.82 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.656 / defence 0.959 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.106 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.174. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Asteras Tripolis's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 PAS Giannina games / 42 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 45%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Asteras Tripolis 2.22. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 30% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG PAS Giannina 0.82 / Asteras Tripolis 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.656 / def 0.959 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.106 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Asteras Tripolis xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 January 2024 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 23% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (6 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 3 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.66) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
23%
4.35
32%
3.09
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.06
1.24
Asteras Tripolis xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
7%
15.10
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.24 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 8W 19D 22L from 49 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 12W 18D 19L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 0.88 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 6W 8D 9L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 4W 7D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.90 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 19D 22L in their last 49 games (0.88 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 18D 19L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.13 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 0.83 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAS Giannina
3
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 3, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when PAS Giannina 0-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 48%, Asteras Tripolis 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 39% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina have failed to score in 44% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 35% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 39% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAS Giannina defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.82 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.24 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.66 / defence 0.96 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 32% | Asteras Tripolis 45%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a PAS Giannina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 45%, Asteras Tripolis 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 0.88 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.