PAOK 3-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Toumba Stadium plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Group - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Toumba Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAOK, 1.80 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: PAOK 3W, Olympiakos Piraeus 4W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 50% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | Olympiakos Piraeus 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.312 / defence 0.653 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / defence 0.640. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.640 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 0.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.653 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 20% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Group - 3 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG PAOK 1.10 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.312 / def 0.653 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.242 / def 0.640 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: PAOK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 3 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Group - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 38% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (8 meetings): PAOK 3W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.24x) against PAOK's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
38%
2.60
35%
2.84
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
PAOK xG
Total xG
1.96
0.86
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for PAOK and 0.86 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 35W 11D 14L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 41W 13D 6L from 60 games, 2.27 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for PAOK against 2.27 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.17 PPG from 30 outings (20W 5D 5L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 20W 6D 4L from 30 away games — 2.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.75 scored and 0.57 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 11D 14L in their last 60 games (1.93 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 41W 13D 6L in their last 60 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.17 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.20 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
2
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 37% (PAOK) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (PAOK) and 37% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of PAOK's recent matches and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of PAOK's recent games and 37% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 at Toumba Stadium, Championship Group - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.10 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.86 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.31 / defence 0.65 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.64, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 38% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 26%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 63%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.93 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.