PAOK 2-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 2W 1D 2L at Stadio Toumbas — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lamia trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 58% versus Lamia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 58% | Lamia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.08 xG and Lamia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.146 / defence 1.197 | Lamia attack 0.640 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.242. Data: 12 PAOK games / 12 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 38% | Draw 31% | Lamia 31%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Lamia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Lamia 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 38% | Draw 31% | Lamia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG PAOK 1.08 / Lamia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.146 / def 1.197 | Lamia attack 0.640 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: PAOK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Lamia xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Lamia kick off?
PAOK vs Lamia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Lamia?
PAOK 2 - 1 Lamia.
Where is PAOK vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Lamia part of?
PAOK vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 38% chance of winning, Lamia a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAOK and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Lamia in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Lamia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.15) and Lamia's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.19
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.03
0.95
Lamia xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for PAOK and 0.95 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 6W 1D 5L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAOK have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Lamia travel well.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.83 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Lamia in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Lamia have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.40 PPG; Lamia away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and Lamia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAOK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
PAOK
1
Draws
0
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 9, Lamia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Lamia?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PAOK 40% BTTS, Lamia 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for PAOK and 20% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Lamia in 60%; PAOK have failed to score in 40% of games; Lamia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAOK's recent matches and 20% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of PAOK's recent games and 20% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Lamia tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lamia in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Lamia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.08 xG and Lamia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 0.86, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 38% | Draw 31% | Lamia 31%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 58%, Lamia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.