PAOK 2-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAOK host Atromitos at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAOK have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Toumbas — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAOK are significantly better at Stadio Toumbas than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atromitos are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAOK, 1 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with PAOK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PAOK in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 47% versus Atromitos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 41% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.40 xG and Atromitos 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.010 / defence 0.852 | Atromitos attack 0.976 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.019. Data: 27 PAOK games / 27 Atromitos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 50% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 23%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Atromitos 4.35. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atromitos (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 50% | Atromitos 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 50% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG PAOK 1.40 / Atromitos 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.010 / def 0.852 | Atromitos attack 0.976 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: PAOK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Atromitos xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Atromitos kick off?
PAOK vs Atromitos kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Atromitos?
PAOK 2 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is PAOK vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Atromitos part of?
PAOK vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 50% chance of winning, Atromitos a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both PAOK and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Atromitos?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are PAOK and Atromitos in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.01x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.65
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.25
0.85
Atromitos xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are PAOK and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PAOK and 0.85 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAOK come into this having played 34 games, going 18W 7D 9L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.06 PPG from 34 outings (9W 9D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Atromitos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAOK's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (2W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAOK are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Atromitos in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 18W 7D 9L in their last 34 games (1.79 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 9W 9D 16L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Atromitos away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.71 PPG.
Have PAOK or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Atromitos in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAOK and Atromitos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2024, when PAOK won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
1
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Atromitos have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Atromitos 2-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Atromitos?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 53%, Atromitos 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (PAOK) and 47% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Atromitos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAOK's recent matches and 41% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of PAOK's recent games and 47% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Atromitos tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Atromitos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Atromitos 2-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.40 xG and Atromitos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Atromitos attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 50% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 23%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 41%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.