PAOK 2-2 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PAOK at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward PAOK. A 1.00 PPG lead over Asteras Tripolis (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 51% versus Asteras Tripolis 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAOK 42% | Asteras Tripolis 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.33 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.083 / defence 0.895 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.933 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.119. Data: 34 PAOK games / 34 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 24%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Asteras Tripolis 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 50% | Asteras Tripolis 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG PAOK 1.33 / Asteras Tripolis 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.083 / def 0.895 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.933 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: PAOK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Asteras Tripolis xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK 2 - 2 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 43% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both PAOK and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Asteras Tripolis's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.93x) against PAOK's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
43%
2.32
33%
3.02
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
15.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for PAOK and 0.94 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 21W 10D 10L from 41 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 16L across 41 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAOK by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 12W 4D 4L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 4W 8D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.95 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Asteras Tripolis in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAOK or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 3-0 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PAOK
3
Draws
0
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 7, Asteras Tripolis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PAOK 2-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 55%, Asteras Tripolis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for PAOK and 25% for Asteras Tripolis.
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 40%; Asteras Tripolis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of PAOK's recent matches and 40% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAOK's recent games and 25% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 9, as PAOK and Asteras Tripolis drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.33 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 0.90 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 43% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 24%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 42%, Asteras Tripolis 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAOK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.