PAOK 0-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 2 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for PAOK against 2.20 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — PAOK have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, AEK Athens FC in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 43% versus AEK Athens FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 43% | AEK Athens FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.34 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.389 / defence 0.720 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.301 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — the away xG of 0.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 22%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | AEK Athens FC 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | AEK Athens FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG PAOK 1.34 / AEK Athens FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.389 / def 0.720 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.301 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: PAOK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
AEK Athens FC xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 0 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 42% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.39x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.30x) against PAOK's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
42%
2.37
36%
2.82
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.28
0.94
AEK Athens FC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for PAOK and 0.94 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 35W 16D 12L from 63 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 35W 11D 17L across 63 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for PAOK against 1.84 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 19W 7D 5L from 31 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 15W 8D 8L across 31 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.70 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 35W 16D 12L in their last 63 games (1.92 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 35W 11D 17L in their last 63 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.06 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 42%, AEK Athens FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (PAOK) and 48% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAOK's recent matches and 48% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of PAOK's recent games and 48% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.34 xG and AEK Athens FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.39 / defence 0.72 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 22%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a AEK Athens FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 43%, AEK Athens FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.92 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.