Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panserraikos host Volos NFC at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panserraikos — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Panserraikos have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panserraikos 0.40 PPG, Volos NFC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Panserraikos have won 2, Volos NFC 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 49% versus Volos NFC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 61% | Volos NFC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.669 / defence 1.458 | Volos NFC attack 0.852 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.151. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Panserraikos games / 47 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 24% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 48%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 2.08. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 30% | Volos NFC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 24% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Panserraikos 0.95 / Volos NFC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.669 / def 1.458 | Volos NFC attack 0.852 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Volos NFC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panserraikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Panserraikos 2 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is Panserraikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panserraikos vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 24% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Panserraikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Volos NFC?
Record (8 meetings): Panserraikos 2W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 4W.
What form are Panserraikos and Volos NFC in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panserraikos's attack rating (0.67) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
24%
4.09
28%
3.58
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.38
1.43
Volos NFC xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
17.06
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.43 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panserraikos come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 10D 35L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.14 PPG from 57 outings (19W 8D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panserraikos on 0.81 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panserraikos's home form reads 8W 7D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (10W 2D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panserraikos are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.98 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 12W 10D 35L in their last 57 games (0.81 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 19W 8D 30L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.11 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panserraikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Panserraikos
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Volos NFC?
From 9 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 50%, Volos NFC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Panserraikos) and 54% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 39% of games; Volos NFC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 43% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Panserraikos's recent games and 54% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.95 xG and Volos NFC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.67 / defence 1.46 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 24% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 48%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 61%, Volos NFC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.81 PPG, Volos NFC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.