Panetolikos 3-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panserraikos at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panetolikos face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Panserraikos meet at Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1 (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Panetolikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Panetolikos have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Panserraikos have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Panetolikos, 0 for Panserraikos and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended Panetolikos 3–0 Panserraikos — a Panetolikos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 46% versus Panserraikos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 51% | Panserraikos 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.27 xG and Panserraikos 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.882 / defence 1.030 | Panserraikos attack 1.100 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.164. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Panetolikos's projected output up. Data: built from Panetolikos's last 28 games and Panserraikos's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 37%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.90 | Draw 3.50 | Panserraikos 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panserraikos are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panserraikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Panetolikos 40% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Panetolikos 28 games, Panserraikos 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Panetolikos 1.27 / Panserraikos 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.882 / def 1.030 | Panserraikos attack 1.100 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Panserraikos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Panserraikos xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Panetolikos 3 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos part of?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 35% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Panserraikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panetolikos and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panetolikos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.88x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (1.10x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Panetolikos's last 28 games and Panserraikos's last 28, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panserraikos Win
35%
2.90
29%
3.50
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.32
Panserraikos xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.32 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 9W 9D 17L from 35 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 15L across 35 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.09 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 6W 3D 8L from their last 17 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 2W 4D 11L across their last 17 away games, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.11 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
Panetolikos (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panetolikos
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Panserraikos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.24 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos, the earliest from January 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won Panetolikos 3-0 Panserraikos on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
4
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panetolikos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 35%, Panserraikos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Panetolikos) and 41% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 35% of games; Panserraikos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panetolikos vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panetolikos and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 35% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panetolikos and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Panetolikos's recent games and 41% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 71% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panetolikos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.27 xG and Panserraikos 1.32 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Panserraikos attack 1.10 / defence 1.25, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 35% | Draw 29% | Panserraikos 37%, with Panserraikos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 51%, Panserraikos 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.03 PPG, Panserraikos 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.