Panetolikos 0-4 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Panetolikos take on OFI.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Panetolikos welcome OFI to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Monday 9 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 0.90 PPG, OFI 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Panetolikos, 0 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Panetolikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 49% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | OFI 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.16 xG and OFI 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.869 / defence 1.058 | OFI attack 0.979 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.015. Data: 42 Panetolikos games / 42 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 36% | OFI 29%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | OFI 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 20% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Monday 9 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 35% | Draw 36% | OFI 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Panetolikos 1.16 / OFI 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.869 / def 1.058 | OFI attack 0.979 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.05
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs OFI kick off?
Panetolikos vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 9 January 2023 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Panetolikos 0 - 4 OFI.
Where is Panetolikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs OFI part of?
Panetolikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 35% chance of winning, OFI a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panetolikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. OFI (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.87x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
36%
2.75
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.22
1.05
OFI xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.05 for OFI, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 11D 23L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.14 PPG from 49 outings (13W 17D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.14 PPG, OFI on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 6W 5D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.04 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; OFI away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and OFI?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 39%, OFI 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Panetolikos) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 44% of games; OFI in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 48% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Panetolikos's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, OFI in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Panetolikos 0-4 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.16 xG and OFI 1.05 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. OFI outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against OFI attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 35% | Draw 36% | OFI 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 47%, OFI 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.14 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.