Panetolikos vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Panetolikos welcome OFI to Panetolikos Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Panetolikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Panetolikos Stadium, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
OFI — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, OFI 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Panetolikos, 4 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 50% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 47% | OFI 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.41 xG and OFI 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.958 / defence 1.065 | OFI attack 1.029 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Panetolikos games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 40% | Draw 30% | OFI 29%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 70% | OFI 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 40% | Draw 30% | OFI 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Panetolikos 1.41 / OFI 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.958 / def 1.065 | OFI attack 1.029 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.18
OFI xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs OFI kick off?
Panetolikos vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
Where is Panetolikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs OFI part of?
Panetolikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 40% chance of winning, OFI a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panetolikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): Panetolikos 5W | Draws 1 | OFI 4W.
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.96x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.32
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.18
OFI xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.18 for OFI, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 32 games, going 8W 8D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. Panetolikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (12W 3D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.00 PPG, OFI on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 4W 3D 9L across 16 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.34 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 games (1.00 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or OFI away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.94 PPG; OFI away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and OFI?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 56%, OFI 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Panetolikos and 75% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play OFI?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Panetolikos's games and 62% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Panetolikos's matches and 75% of OFI's.
Do Panetolikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.