Panetolikos 0-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panetolikos at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panetolikos host Kifisia at Panetolikos Stadium in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Panetolikos — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 2W 2D 6L at Panetolikos Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kifisia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Kifisia away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Panetolikos have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Kifisia have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Panetolikos a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Panetolikos in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Kifisia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 42% versus Kifisia 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 45% | Kifisia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.52 xG and Kifisia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.874 / defence 1.215 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 26 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Kifisia 4.00. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 50% | Kifisia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 6 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Panetolikos 1.52 / Kifisia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.874 / def 1.215 | Kifisia attack 0.830 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kifisia xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Kifisia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Kifisia kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Kifisia part of?
Panetolikos vs Kifisia is a Relegation Group - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 45% chance of winning, Kifisia a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Panetolikos and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Kifisia?
Record (6 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 3 | Kifisia 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Kifisia in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Kifisia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Panetolikos's attack rating (0.87) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.38
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Kifisia xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.07 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 8W 7D 16L from 31 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Kifisia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 12L across 31 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.00 PPG, Kifisia on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 4W 2D 9L from 15 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kifisia's away record stands at 2W 7D 6L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Kifisia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 8W 7D 16L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 6W 13D 12L in their last 31 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Kifisia away?
Panetolikos's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.93 PPG; Kifisia away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Kifisia runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Dec 2023, when Panetolikos won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
3
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Kifisia?
From 7 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Kifisia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Kifisia?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 53%, Kifisia 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Panetolikos and 60% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 40% of games; Kifisia in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Panetolikos's games and 73% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Panetolikos's matches and 60% of Kifisia's.
Do Panetolikos and Kifisia tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Panetolikos Stadium, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.52 xG and Kifisia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 45% | Draw 30% | Kifisia 25%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Kifisia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 45%, Kifisia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kifisia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.00 PPG, Kifisia 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kifisia win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Kifisia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.