Panathinaikos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Panathinaikos take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panathinaikos have posted 5W 2D 3L at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Panathinaikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Panathinaikos 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 64% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.065 / defence 0.815 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.175 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.257. Data: 32 Panathinaikos games / 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 52% | xG Panathinaikos 1.17 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.065 / def 0.815 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.175 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 0 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (2 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.06) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.18x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.17
35%
2.86
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.37
1.20
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
10.55
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.20 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 23W 9D 10L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 27W 7D 8L from 42 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Panathinaikos against 2.10 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (13W 4D 4L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 11W 5D 5L from 21 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.12 scored and 0.88 conceded. Panathinaikos's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Early Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 23W 9D 10L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 27W 7D 8L in their last 42 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.05 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Panathinaikos) and 48% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panathinaikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 0-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.17 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panathinaikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 64%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.86 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.