Panathinaikos 3-0 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panathinaikos vs Kifisia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Panathinaikos welcome Kifisia to Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Panathinaikos have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kifisia stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia away from home this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panathinaikos 1.40 PPG, Kifisia 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Panathinaikos register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kifisia in 89% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Panathinaikos, 1 for Kifisia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 2–3 with Kifisia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kifisia in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Panathinaikos 53% and Kifisia 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 53% | Kifisia 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.00 xG and Kifisia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.206 / defence 0.900 | Kifisia attack 0.976 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.101. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Panathinaikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Panathinaikos games / 17 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 61% | Draw 21% | Kifisia 18%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Kifisia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 60% | Kifisia 89% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 61% | Draw 21% | Kifisia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Panathinaikos 2.00 / Kifisia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.206 / def 0.900 | Kifisia attack 0.976 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Kifisia xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Kifisia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Panathinaikos 3 - 0 Kifisia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Kifisia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 61% chance of winning, Kifisia a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Panathinaikos and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Kifisia?
Record (3 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 1 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Kifisia in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Kifisia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 1.21x the league average against Kifisia's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.74
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.97
0.97
Kifisia xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
14%
7.37
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
41.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.97 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panathinaikos come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 5D 5L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panathinaikos's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kifisia have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.41 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Kifisia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.12 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panathinaikos and Kifisia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2026, when Panathinaikos won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Kifisia?
From 4 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 2, Kifisia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-0 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Kifisia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panathinaikos at 62%, Kifisia at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panathinaikos) and 62% (Kifisia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Panathinaikos's games and 88% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panathinaikos vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Panathinaikos's matches and 62% of Kifisia's.
Do Panathinaikos and Kifisia tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panathinaikos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kifisia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Kifisia 3-0 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 2.00 xG and Kifisia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kifisia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.21 / defence 0.90 against Kifisia attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 61% | Draw 21% | Kifisia 18%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 53%, Kifisia 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Kifisia's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.