Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Olympiakos Piraeus face PAS Giannina.

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Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus host PAS Giannina at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Olympiakos Piraeus's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, PAS Giannina stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Olympiakos Piraeus: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for PAS Giannina, with 2 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 3–0 PAS Giannina — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Profile

Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.

PAS Giannina in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus PAS Giannina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 54% | PAS Giannina 46%). Note also that PAS Giannina surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Olympiakos Piraeus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.58 xG and PAS Giannina 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.301 / defence 0.951 | PAS Giannina attack 0.795 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.291. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.301 — their 2.58 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PAS Giannina's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 45 games and PAS Giannina's last 45.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 72% | Draw 17% | PAS Giannina 12%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.40 | Draw 6.04 | PAS Giannina 8.47. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (72%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 60% (last 10 away games).

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