Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Super League 1 appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.67 lags behind their overall 2.33 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season.
PAOK have collected 2.17 PPG across 6 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, PAOK have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.17 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.33 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2.17 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | PAOK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 xG and PAOK 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.943 / defence 0.991 | PAOK attack 1.067 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.158. Data: 6 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 6 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 29% | Draw 32% | PAOK 39%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | PAOK 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 33% | PAOK 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 29% | Draw 32% | PAOK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 / PAOK 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.943 / def 0.991 | PAOK attack 1.067 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: PAOK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.22
PAOK xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 29% chance of winning, PAOK a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 4W-1D-1L in 6 | 2.17 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (0.94) and PAOK's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.07x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.13
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.26
1.22
PAOK xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.22 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 4W 2D 0L from 6 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 1L across 6 games — 2.17 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.17 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.33 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
PAOK's away record stands at 3W 0D 0L across 3 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 2.17 PPG overall record — PAOK travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.00 scored and 1.17 conceded. PAOK's attacking output running into Olympiakos Piraeus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 games (2.33 PPG), while PAOK have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 1.67 PPG; PAOK away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, PAOK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, PAOK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 67% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; PAOK in 33%; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 67% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 67% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, PAOK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat PAOK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat PAOK 2-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.04 xG and PAOK 1.22 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against PAOK attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 29% | Draw 32% | PAOK 39%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, PAOK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.33 PPG, PAOK 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.