Olympiakos Piraeus 1-3 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 March 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.50 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.40 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Panathinaikos in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 45% versus Panathinaikos 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 56% | Panathinaikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 xG and Panathinaikos 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.354 / defence 0.801 | Panathinaikos attack 1.280 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.359. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Panathinaikos 3.85. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | Panathinaikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 / Panathinaikos 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.354 / def 0.801 | Panathinaikos attack 1.280 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 3 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.28x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.83
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
3.29
1.39
Panathinaikos xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
4%
25.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.39 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 62 games, going 39W 14D 9L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 2.13 PPG from 62 outings (39W 15D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.11 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.13 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 22W 5D 4L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 2.03 points per game from 31 outings (19W 6D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.73 scored and 0.61 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Panathinaikos in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 14D 9L in their last 62 games (2.11 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 39W 15D 8L in their last 62 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.29 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Panathinaikos 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 42% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 39% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 42% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-3 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.89 xG and Panathinaikos 1.39 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against Panathinaikos attack 1.28 / defence 0.86, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 26% | Panathinaikos 26%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Panathinaikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, Panathinaikos 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.11 PPG, Panathinaikos 2.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.