Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 0.50 PPG clear of Olympiakos Piraeus in recent Super League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus Panathinaikos 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Panathinaikos 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 xG and Panathinaikos 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.558 / defence 0.768 | Panathinaikos attack 1.103 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.558 — their λ of 1.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 20%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | Panathinaikos 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panathinaikos (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Panathinaikos 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 9 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 / Panathinaikos 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.558 / def 0.768 | Panathinaikos attack 1.103 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Panathinaikos xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Championship Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 44% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.10x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
44%
2.28
36%
2.79
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.17
0.85
Panathinaikos xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
5%
18.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.85 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 70 games, going 44W 18D 8L for 2.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.97 PPG from 70 outings (41W 15D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.14 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.97 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 24W 8D 3L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.66 points per game from 35 outings (17W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.40 scored and 0.57 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos in 29%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Panathinaikos in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
Panathinaikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 44W 18D 8L in their last 70 games (2.14 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 41W 15D 14L in their last 70 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.29 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, Panathinaikos 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 31% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 49%; Panathinaikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 31% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 31% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panathinaikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 xG and Panathinaikos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.56 / defence 0.77 against Panathinaikos attack 1.10 / defence 0.68, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 20%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, Panathinaikos 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.14 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.