Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus host OFI at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 4D 2L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. OFI haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 10 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 0 for OFI, with 0 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 10 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
OFI in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 34% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 34% | OFI 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.44 xG and OFI 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.978 / defence 0.887 | OFI attack 1.028 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 26 OFI games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 24%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | OFI 4.17. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 20% | OFI 80%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 31% | OFI 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.44 / OFI 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.978 / def 0.887 | OFI attack 1.028 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.98
OFI xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% chance of winning, OFI a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Record (10 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 10W | Draws 0 | OFI 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.98x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.27
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
OFI xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.98 for OFI, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 32 games, going 19W 9D 4L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.22 PPG from 32 outings (12W 3D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. OFI haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 10W 4D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.34 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Pre-Season
OFI
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 19W 9D 4L in their last 32 games (2.06 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 3D 17L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or OFI away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.12 PPG; OFI away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, OFI in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 10 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting OFI specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
0
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 10, OFI have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when OFI 0-3 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 25%, OFI 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 75% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 62% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 75% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and OFI tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.