Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Levadiakos.

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Full Analysis

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season.

Levadiakos have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Levadiakos's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.30 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in just 10% of their games, Levadiakos in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Levadiakos — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.

The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.

Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 31% versus Levadiakos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Levadiakos 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.39 xG and Levadiakos 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.798 / defence 0.752 | Levadiakos attack 0.702 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.065. Olympiakos Piraeus's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 33 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 55% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 13%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.82 | Draw 3.12 | Levadiakos 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (55%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Levadiakos's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Levadiakos 10% BTTS from recent games.

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