Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Atromitos travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021, 18:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.00 xG and Atromitos 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Atromitos attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.026 / away 0.510. Data: 0 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 0 Atromitos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 18%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Atromitos 5.56. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 25% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 75% — Atromitos's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 25%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 25% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.00 / Atromitos 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Atromitos attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.026 / away 0.510 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Atromitos xG
25%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance of winning, Atromitos a 18% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 25% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.85x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (20.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
47%
2.12
35%
2.87
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
22.3%
Home win
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.50
0.50
Atromitos xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
25%
BTTS Yes
4.02
75%
BTTS No
1.33
Clean Sheet
61%
1.65
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.3 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.3 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.50 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Pre-Season
Atromitos
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 7, Atromitos have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 1, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.00 xG and Atromitos 0.50 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Atromitos attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Draw 35% | Atromitos 18%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 25% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.