Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus Aris Thessalonikis 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 47% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.43 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.339 / defence 0.759 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.946 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.038. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 43 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00 | Draw 2.94 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.43 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.339 / def 0.759 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.946 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Aris Thessalonikis xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 16% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.34x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.95x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
50%
2.01
34%
2.91
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.17
0.74
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.01
50%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
26.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.74 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 35W 13D 5L from 53 games, a 2.23 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 15L across 53 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 18W 6D 2L from 26 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 11W 4D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.21 scored and 0.77 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 28%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 35W 13D 5L in their last 53 games (2.23 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 12D 15L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.31 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 31% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.43 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.74 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.34 / defence 0.76 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.