OFI 2-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Volos NFC make the trip to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to face OFI in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
OFI's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
OFI at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Volos NFC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for OFI against 1.40 for Volos NFC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Volos NFC edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Feb 2024, ended OFI 1–3 Volos NFC — a Volos NFC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Volos NFC half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 46% | Volos NFC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.75 xG and Volos NFC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.937 / defence 0.928 | Volos NFC attack 0.656 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Volos NFC's attack rating of 0.656 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from OFI's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52.
Result probabilities: OFI 57% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 15%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.75 | Draw 3.64 | Volos NFC 6.51. The model has a clear lean to OFI (57%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 57% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG OFI 1.75 / Volos NFC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.937 / def 0.928 | Volos NFC attack 0.656 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: OFI (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Volos NFC xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Volos NFC FAQs
What time does OFI vs Volos NFC kick off?
OFI vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
OFI 2 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is OFI vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Volos NFC part of?
OFI vs Volos NFC is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 57% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both OFI and Volos NFC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will OFI vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.94x the league average against Volos NFC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (0.66x) against OFI's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 52 games and Volos NFC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.64
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
OFI xG
Total xG
2.58
0.83
Volos NFC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
3%
37.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Volos NFC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for OFI and 0.83 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, OFI have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 16W 24D 23L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Volos NFC's form line: 17W 14D 32L from 63 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for OFI against 1.03 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 32 home games (9W 13D 10L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 8W 9D 15L from their last 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
OFI are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.02 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
OFI (Home) vs Volos NFC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ OFI vs Volos NFC Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 16W 24D 23L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 14D 32L in their last 63 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Volos NFC away?
OFI's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.25 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: OFI have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won OFI 4-0 Volos NFC on 23 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 4W 1D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
3
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Volos NFC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Volos NFC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 5, Volos NFC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Volos NFC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: OFI 2-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Volos NFC?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 47%, Volos NFC 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (OFI) and 50% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 34% of games; Volos NFC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Volos NFC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Volos NFC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of OFI's recent matches and 31% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Volos NFC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Volos NFC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of OFI's recent matches and 59% of Volos NFC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Volos NFC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Volos NFC 2-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.75 xG and Volos NFC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Volos NFC attack 0.66 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 57% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 15%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 46%, Volos NFC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.14 PPG, Volos NFC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.