OFI 1-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees PAOK travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (OFI) versus 1.60 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for OFI, 2 for PAOK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus PAOK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 46% | PAOK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.067 / defence 1.228 | PAOK attack 1.079 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 0.768. Data: 28 OFI games / 28 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 33% | PAOK 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.22 | Draw 3.03 | PAOK 4.55. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 50% | PAOK 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 33% | PAOK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG OFI 1.53 / PAOK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.067 / def 1.228 | PAOK attack 1.079 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.607 / away 0.768 • Poisson stance: OFI (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 1 - 0 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 45% chance of winning, PAOK a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Record (4 meetings): OFI 0W | Draws 2 | PAOK 2W.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.07) and PAOK's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.03
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OFI xG
Total xG
2.55
1.02
PAOK xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OFI and 1.02 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 11D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (19W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 4W 7D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.76 points per game from 17 outings (8W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.69 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while PAOK have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.12 PPG; PAOK away: 1.76 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAOK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 53%, PAOK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (OFI) and 47% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 41%; OFI have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of OFI's recent matches and 47% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of OFI's recent games and 47% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, PAOK in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out PAOK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat PAOK 1-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAOK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 45% | Draw 33% | PAOK 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 46%, PAOK 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
PAOK's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.