OFI 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OFI at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Panetolikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Panetolikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
OFI — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Panetolikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.60 PPG versus Panetolikos's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for OFI, 2 for Panetolikos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 55% versus Panetolikos 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Panetolikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.41 xG and Panetolikos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.211 / defence 1.061 | Panetolikos attack 0.755 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.220. Data: 31 OFI games / 31 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Panetolikos 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 60% | Panetolikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG OFI 1.41 / Panetolikos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.211 / def 1.061 | Panetolikos attack 0.755 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: OFI (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Panetolikos xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Panetolikos kick off?
OFI vs Panetolikos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
OFI 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is OFI vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panetolikos part of?
OFI vs Panetolikos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 43% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OFI and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
Record (6 meetings): OFI 3W | Draws 1 | Panetolikos 2W.
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
43%
2.31
34%
2.90
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
OFI xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
Panetolikos xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
18.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are OFI and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for OFI and 0.98 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 9W 16D 13L from 38 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 17L across 38 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Panetolikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.13 PPG, Panetolikos on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 7D 4L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 3W 7D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.05 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 9W 16D 13L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panetolikos away?
OFI's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.63 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Panetolikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Panetolikos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panetolikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 58%, Panetolikos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (OFI) and 47% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Panetolikos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Panetolikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of OFI's games and 53% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of OFI's recent games and 47% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panetolikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.41 xG and Panetolikos 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Panetolikos attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 34% | Panetolikos 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Panetolikos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.13 PPG, Panetolikos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.