OFI 3-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Fixture Analysis

OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Sunday 15 September 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Guide

OFI — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

OFI at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (OFI) versus 1.20 (Aris Thessalonikis). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, OFI have won 0, Aris Thessalonikis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended OFI 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

OFI in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 53% versus Aris Thessalonikis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Aris Thessalonikis 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.98 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.020 / defence 0.951 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.918 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.283. Data: built from OFI's last 29 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 29. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: OFI 29% | Draw 35% | Aris Thessalonikis 36%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.44 | Draw 2.88 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 20% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (OFI 29 games, Aris Thessalonikis 29) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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