Levadiakos 1-3 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Levadiakos take on PAS Giannina.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees PAS Giannina travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 January 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Stadio Levadias this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 1.00 (PAS Giannina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 1 for PAS Giannina and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with PAS Giannina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 44% versus PAS Giannina 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 31% | PAS Giannina 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.10 xG and PAS Giannina 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.725 / defence 1.007 | PAS Giannina attack 0.866 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.975. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAS Giannina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Levadiakos games / 42 PAS Giannina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 37% | Draw 39% | PAS Giannina 24%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.70 | Draw 2.56 | PAS Giannina 4.17. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 50% | PAS Giannina 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 37% | Draw 39% | PAS Giannina 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 42% | xG Levadiakos 1.10 / PAS Giannina 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.725 / def 1.007 | PAS Giannina attack 0.866 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.85
PAS Giannina xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Levadiakos 1 - 3 PAS Giannina.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina part of?
Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 37% chance of winning, PAS Giannina a 24% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levadiakos and PAS Giannina will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAS Giannina?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | PAS Giannina 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAS Giannina in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.72x the league average against PAS Giannina's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAS Giannina's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.70
39%
2.56
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.95
0.85
PAS Giannina xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAS Giannina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.85 for PAS Giannina, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 2W 5D 9L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAS Giannina's form line: 3W 5D 8L from 16 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 0.69 PPG, PAS Giannina on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.69 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAS Giannina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Levadiakos are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; PAS Giannina are on 1.06 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAS Giannina in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
PAS Giannina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAS Giannina in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while PAS Giannina have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAS Giannina away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.12 PPG; PAS Giannina away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levadiakos and PAS Giannina runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Levadiakos's record when hosting PAS Giannina specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
2
PAS Giannina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAS Giannina?
From 3 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAS Giannina have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAS Giannina last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Levadiakos 3-3 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAS Giannina?
PAS Giannina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 50%, PAS Giannina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Levadiakos and 50% for PAS Giannina.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 38% of games; PAS Giannina in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAS Giannina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAS Giannina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of PAS Giannina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs PAS Giannina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of PAS Giannina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and PAS Giannina tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAS Giannina in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAS Giannina beat Levadiakos 1-3 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.10 xG and PAS Giannina 0.85 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAS Giannina outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.72 / defence 1.01 against PAS Giannina attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 16/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 37% | Draw 39% | PAS Giannina 24%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a PAS Giannina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 31%, PAS Giannina 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
PAS Giannina's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.69 PPG, PAS Giannina 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAS Giannina win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.