Levadiakos 2-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
PAOK — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus PAOK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | PAOK 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.04 xG and PAOK 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.532 / defence 1.003 | PAOK attack 1.507 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.198. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.532 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.507 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Levadiakos games / 37 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 44% | Draw 21% | PAOK 35%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.27 | Draw 4.76 | PAOK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.85 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 44% | Draw 21% | PAOK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Levadiakos 2.04 / PAOK 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.532 / def 1.003 | PAOK attack 1.507 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.81
PAOK xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Levadiakos 2 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 44% chance of winning, PAOK a 35% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
Record (4 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (1.53) and PAOK's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.51x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
44%
2.27
21%
4.76
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
3.85
1.81
PAOK xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
16%
6.12
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
5%
22.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.81 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 12D 12L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.95 PPG from 43 outings (26W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.95 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.86 points per game from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.98 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAOK in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 games (1.60 PPG), while PAOK have gone 26W 6D 11L in their last 43 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.62 PPG; PAOK away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, PAOK in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-0 on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 57%, PAOK 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Levadiakos and 76% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Levadiakos's games and 71% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Levadiakos's matches and 76% of PAOK's.
Do Levadiakos and PAOK tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Levadiakos 2-3 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.04 xG and PAOK 1.81 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.53 / defence 1.00 against PAOK attack 1.51 / defence 0.94, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 44% | Draw 21% | PAOK 35%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 56%, PAOK 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.60 PPG, PAOK 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.