Levadiakos 3-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Levadias plays host to Levadiakos versus Panserraikos in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panserraikos (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Panserraikos have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Levadiakos, 0 for Panserraikos and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Jan 2025, ended Levadiakos 1–0 Panserraikos — a Levadiakos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus Panserraikos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 48% | Panserraikos 63%). Note also that Panserraikos surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Levadiakos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.51 xG and Panserraikos 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.934 / defence 1.185 | Panserraikos attack 0.921 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.093. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levadiakos's projected output up. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and Panserraikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.24 | Draw 3.94 | Panserraikos 3.34. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 60% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Levadiakos 1.51 / Panserraikos 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.934 / def 1.185 | Panserraikos attack 0.921 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Panserraikos xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Levadiakos 3 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 45% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Levadiakos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.93) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.92x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 26 games and Panserraikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.94
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.71
1.19
Panserraikos xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.19 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 7W 10D 10L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 14L across 27 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.07 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 3W 4D 6L from their last 13 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 4W 0D 9L across their last 13 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
Levadiakos (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Levadiakos vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panserraikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Levadiakos and Panserraikos, the earliest from September 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 22 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won Levadiakos 3-0 Panserraikos on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Levadiakos
1
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 December 2025: Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 54%, Panserraikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Levadiakos) and 69% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 38% of games; Panserraikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 54% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levadiakos and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Levadiakos's matches and 69% of Panserraikos's.
Do Levadiakos and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 62% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.51 xG and Panserraikos 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Panserraikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 48%, Panserraikos 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.15 PPG, Panserraikos 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.