Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.

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Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1 (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 2 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

Levadiakos's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Levadiakos have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Levadiakos 2–2 Olympiakos Piraeus — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 45% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.80 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.825 / defence 1.210 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.223 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.110. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack rating of 1.223, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Levadiakos's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output up. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 20 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 46.

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 18% | Draw 24% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.54 | Draw 4.08 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 away games).

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