Levadiakos 2-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Levadiakos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Levadiakos welcome Lamia to Stadio Levadias in Super League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Levadiakos — last 8 games: 0W 5D 3L, averaging 0.62 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%).
Levadiakos at home: 0W 2D 2L from their last 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Lamia have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.62 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 0.60 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Levadiakos have won 0, Lamia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Levadiakos 1–1 Lamia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 50% versus Lamia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 38% | Lamia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.84 xG and Lamia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.630 / defence 1.184 | Lamia attack 0.979 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.209. Levadiakos's attack rating of 0.630 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Lamia's defence rating of 1.223 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Levadiakos's projected output up. Data: built from Levadiakos's last 8 games and Lamia's last 34.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 32% | Lamia 48%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.95 | Draw 3.12 | Lamia 2.10. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Levadiakos 25% (last 4 home games) | Lamia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 32% | Lamia 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Levadiakos 0.84 / Lamia 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.630 / def 1.184 | Lamia attack 0.979 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Lamia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Lamia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Levadiakos vs Lamia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Lamia kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Levadiakos 2 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Levadiakos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Lamia part of?
Levadiakos vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 20% chance of winning, Lamia a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levadiakos and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Levadiakos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Levadiakos's last 8 games and Lamia's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
20%
4.95
32%
3.12
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.24
1.40
Lamia xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
5%
20.09
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.40 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 5D 3L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 0.62 PPG, Lamia on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 4 away games (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Lamia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
Levadiakos (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Levadiakos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Levadiakos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Lamia have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 0.50 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Lamia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Levadiakos have won 2, Lamia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2025: Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 25%, Lamia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Levadiakos and 25% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Levadiakos vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Levadiakos and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Levadiakos and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 25% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 25% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 75% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Lamia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 9, as Levadiakos and Lamia drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.84 xG and Lamia 1.40 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.63 / defence 1.18 against Lamia attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 20% | Draw 32% | Lamia 48%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 38%, Lamia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.62 PPG, Lamia 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.