Levadiakos 2-2 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Levadiakos welcome Lamia to Stadio Levadias. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Levadiakos — All Games: 0W 5D 3L from 8 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.62 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos at Stadio Levadias this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.62 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 0.60 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Lamia and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 50% versus Lamia 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 38% | Lamia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.84 xG and Lamia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.630 / defence 1.184 | Lamia attack 0.979 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.209. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.630 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Levadiakos games / 34 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 32% | Lamia 48%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Lamia 2.08. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 25% | Lamia 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 20% | Draw 32% | Lamia 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Levadiakos 0.84 / Lamia 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.630 / def 1.184 | Lamia attack 0.979 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Lamia (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Lamia xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Lamia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Levadiakos 2 - 2 Lamia.
Where is Levadiakos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Lamia part of?
Levadiakos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 20% chance of winning, Lamia a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levadiakos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Record (3 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 2 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Lamia in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-5D-3L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
20%
4.95
32%
3.12
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.24
1.40
Lamia xG
4.95
20%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
5%
20.09
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.40 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 5D 3L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 0.62 PPG, Lamia on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Lamia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Lamia have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 0.50 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Lamia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Lamia?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Lamia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 25%, Lamia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Levadiakos and 25% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Levadiakos's recent games and 25% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Lamia tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Lamia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Lamia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 9, as Levadiakos and Lamia drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.84 xG and Lamia 1.40 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.63 / defence 1.18 against Lamia attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 20% | Draw 32% | Lamia 48%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 38%, Lamia 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.62 PPG, Lamia 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.