Levadiakos 2-2 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Levadiakos take on Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Ionikos meet at Stadio Levadias in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 April 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Levadiakos's home record at Stadio Levadias: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ionikos (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ionikos's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ionikos arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Ionikos in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Levadiakos 1W, Ionikos 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Levadiakos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Ionikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 38% | Ionikos 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 34% | Ionikos 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Ionikos 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.695 / defence 1.058 | Ionikos attack 0.754 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 0.999. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 38% | Draw 39% | Ionikos 23%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.63 | Draw 2.56 | Ionikos 4.35. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 30% | Ionikos 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 38% | Draw 39% | Ionikos 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Levadiakos 1.09 / Ionikos 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.695 / def 1.058 | Ionikos attack 0.754 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.245 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ionikos xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Ionikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Levadiakos 2 - 2 Ionikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Ionikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Ionikos is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 38% chance of winning, Ionikos a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Levadiakos and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Ionikos?
Record (2 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Ionikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Ionikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.75x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.62
39%
2.54
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.89
0.80
Ionikos xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.80 for Ionikos, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Levadiakos come into this having played 29 games, going 4W 10D 15L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 0.83 PPG from 29 outings (6W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Levadiakos against 0.83 for Ionikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Levadiakos's home form reads 3W 6D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (3W 1D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levadiakos are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.62 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Current Season
Ionikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 4W 10D 15L in their last 29 games (0.76 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 6W 6D 17L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Ionikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.07 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
2
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Ionikos?
From 3 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Ionikos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Levadiakos 2-2 Ionikos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Ionikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 43% (Levadiakos) and 21% (Ionikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Levadiakos and 29% for Ionikos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 43% of games; Ionikos in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 21% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Levadiakos's recent games and 29% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Ionikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Ionikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Ionikos finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Ionikos 0.80 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ionikos outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.69 / defence 1.06 against Ionikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 38% | Draw 39% | Ionikos 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 34%, Ionikos 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Ionikos's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.76 PPG, Ionikos 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.