Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Levadia Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos at Levadia Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Levadiakos's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Asteras Tripolis's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 61% versus Asteras Tripolis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 59% | Asteras Tripolis 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.32 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.564 / defence 1.038 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.667 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.098. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Levadiakos games / 43 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 72% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 11%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Asteras Tripolis 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 72% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 48% | xG Levadiakos 2.32 / Asteras Tripolis 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.564 / def 1.038 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.667 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Asteras Tripolis xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos 3 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 72% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 4 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (1.56) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.67x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 3-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.85
11%
9.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
3.08
0.76
Asteras Tripolis xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
9.47
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
10%
10.16
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
1%
96.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.76 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 13D 13L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.16 PPG from 49 outings (15W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 12W 4D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.02 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 12D 22L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.67 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 58%, Asteras Tripolis 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Levadiakos) and 42% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 46% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Levadiakos's recent games and 42% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Asteras Tripolis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Asteras Tripolis 3-1 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.32 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.76 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.56 / defence 1.04 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 72% | Draw 17% | Asteras Tripolis 11%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 59%, Asteras Tripolis 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.