Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Levadiakos take on Aris Thessalonikis.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Levadiakos (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for Aris Thessalonikis and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.589 / defence 1.076 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.956 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.589 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aris Thessalonikis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Levadiakos games / 32 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 33% | Draw 37% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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