Larisa 1-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Larisa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Larisa vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panserraikos make the trip to AEL FC Arena to face Larisa in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Larisa have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 4L across 9 games at AEL FC Arena this term (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panserraikos (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Larisa's favour (0.90 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Larisa 1W, Panserraikos 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 2–0 with Larisa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Larisa half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Larisa 53% versus Panserraikos 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Larisa 41% | Panserraikos 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Larisa 1.54 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Larisa attack 0.719 / defence 1.192 | Panserraikos attack 0.738 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.102. Larisa's attack strength of 0.719 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Larisa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Larisa games / 43 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Larisa 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24%. Fair-value odds: Larisa 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Panserraikos 4.17. Larisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Larisa at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Larisa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Larisa 56% | Panserraikos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Larisa vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AEL FC Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Larisa 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Larisa 1.54 / Panserraikos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Larisa attack 0.719 / def 1.192 | Panserraikos attack 0.738 / def 1.506 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Larisa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Larisa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Panserraikos xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Larisa vs Panserraikos kick off?
Larisa vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at AEL FC Arena.
What was the final score in Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Larisa 1 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Larisa vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at AEL FC Arena.
What competition is Larisa vs Panserraikos part of?
Larisa vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Larisa a 51% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Larisa and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Larisa vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panserraikos?
Record (1 meetings): Larisa 1W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Larisa and Panserraikos in?
Larisa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Larisa's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Panserraikos's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.74x) against Larisa's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 17/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.91
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Larisa xG
Total xG
2.51
0.97
Panserraikos xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Larisa and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Larisa and 0.97 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Larisa vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Larisa have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 2W 7D 8L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos's form line: 2W 2D 13L from 17 games, 0.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Larisa against 0.47 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Larisa have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Larisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Larisa are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.53 scored and 2.41 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Larisa
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Larisa and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Larisa have gone 2W 7D 8L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Larisa at home or Panserraikos away?
Larisa's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Larisa at home: 0.75 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Larisa have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Larisa
1
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Larisa and Panserraikos?
From 4 meetings on record, Larisa have won 2, Panserraikos have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Larisa and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Larisa and Panserraikos?
Larisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Larisa 50%, Panserraikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Larisa) and 75% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Larisa have failed to score in 38% of games; Panserraikos in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Larisa home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Larisa play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Larisa's recent matches and 38% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Larisa vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Larisa's matches and 75% of Panserraikos's.
Do Larisa and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Larisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Larisa edge out Panserraikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Larisa beat Panserraikos 1-0 at AEL FC Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Larisa 1.54 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Larisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Panserraikos attack 0.74 / defence 1.51, drawn from 17/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Larisa 51% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 24%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Larisa 41%, Panserraikos 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Larisa's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Larisa 0.76 PPG, Panserraikos 0.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Larisa win broke the near-deadlock. Larisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.