Lamia 0-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamia at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panserraikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Lamia are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lamia have won 0, Panserraikos 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Panserraikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 53% versus Panserraikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 59% | Panserraikos 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 2.09 xG and Panserraikos 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.969 / defence 1.091 | Panserraikos attack 0.727 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.174. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Lamia games / 17 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 62% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 14%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Panserraikos 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Lamia (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 60% | Panserraikos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 62% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Lamia 2.09 / Panserraikos 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.969 / def 1.091 | Panserraikos attack 0.727 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lamia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Panserraikos xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panserraikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Lamia 0 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panserraikos part of?
Lamia vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 62% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lamia and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.97x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.24
14%
7.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.02
0.93
Panserraikos xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
7.07
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
56.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Lamia and 0.93 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 6D 6L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 1.24 PPG, Panserraikos on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Lamia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.25 points per game from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 games (1.24 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panserraikos away?
Lamia's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.75 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lamia's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panserraikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 62%, Panserraikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lamia) and 50% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Panserraikos in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lamia's recent matches and 38% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lamia's matches and 50% of Panserraikos's.
Do Lamia and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 2.09 xG and Panserraikos 0.93 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Panserraikos outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Panserraikos attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 62% | Draw 24% | Panserraikos 14%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 59%, Panserraikos 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 1.24 PPG, Panserraikos 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.