Lamia 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 6 sees Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 3W 2D 5L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamia 1.50 PPG, Levadiakos 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamia, 0 for Levadiakos and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 39% versus Levadiakos 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 39% | Levadiakos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.47 xG and Levadiakos 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.833 / defence 1.434 | Levadiakos attack 0.688 / defence 1.413. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.413 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Lamia games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 45% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 22%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Levadiakos 4.55. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 50% | Levadiakos 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 45% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Lamia 1.47 / Levadiakos 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.833 / def 1.434 | Levadiakos attack 0.688 / def 1.413 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Lamia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Levadiakos xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Lamia vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Lamia 1 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Lamia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Levadiakos part of?
Lamia vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 45% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lamia and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 1W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in?
Lamia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.83x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
45%
2.25
34%
2.97
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.45
0.99
Levadiakos xG
2.25
45%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lamia and 0.99 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia's recent record stands at 5W 12D 14L from 31 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 4W 12D 15L across 31 games — 0.77 PPG, with D-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.87 PPG, Levadiakos on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 4W 4D 7L from 15 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 1W 5D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.68 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 5W 12D 14L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 4W 12D 15L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Levadiakos away?
Lamia's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.07 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lamia
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 40%, Levadiakos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lamia) and 47% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 40% of games; Levadiakos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lamia's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lamia's recent games and 47% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Levadiakos finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Relegation Round - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.47 xG and Levadiakos 0.99 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.83 / defence 1.43 against Levadiakos attack 0.69 / defence 1.41, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 45% | Draw 34% | Levadiakos 22%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 39%, Levadiakos 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.87 PPG, Levadiakos 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.