Lamia 0-2 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Lamia take on Ionikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lamia welcome Ionikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Monday 30 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Ionikos have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Ionikos have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Lamia) versus 0.50 (Ionikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lamia, 1 for Ionikos and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 38% versus Ionikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 40% | Ionikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.14 xG and Ionikos 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.797 / defence 1.289 | Ionikos attack 0.792 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.043. Lamia's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Lamia games / 45 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Ionikos 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | Ionikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 30 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 49% | xG Lamia 1.14 / Ionikos 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.797 / def 1.289 | Ionikos attack 0.792 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Ionikos xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Ionikos kick off?
Lamia vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 30 January 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Ionikos?
Lamia 0 - 2 Ionikos.
Where is Lamia vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Ionikos part of?
Lamia vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 33% chance of winning, Ionikos a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lamia and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Ionikos?
Record (4 meetings): Lamia 2W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 1W.
What form are Lamia and Ionikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Ionikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ionikos's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
37%
2.69
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.20
1.06
Ionikos xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lamia and 1.06 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 52 games, going 8W 18D 26L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (13W 14D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.81 PPG, Ionikos on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 3W 9D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Ionikos have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.08 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 18D 26L in their last 52 games (0.81 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 13W 14D 25L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Ionikos away?
Ionikos's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.72 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Ionikos 2-2 Lamia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Ionikos 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lamia) and 40% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 44% of games; Ionikos in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 48% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lamia's recent games and 40% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Ionikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.14 xG and Ionikos 1.06 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ionikos outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.80 / defence 1.29 against Ionikos attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 33% | Draw 37% | Ionikos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ionikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 40%, Ionikos 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.81 PPG, Ionikos 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.