Lamia 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 2W 2D 1L from 5 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Aris Thessalonikis — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 80% versus Aris Thessalonikis 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 80% | Aris Thessalonikis 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.23 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 1.036 / defence 1.290 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.929 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.152. Data: 5 Lamia games / 5 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 80% | Aris Thessalonikis 20%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 31% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Lamia 1.23 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 1.036 / def 1.290 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.929 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Aris Thessalonikis xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Lamia 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 31% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamia's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
31%
3.26
32%
3.15
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.61
1.38
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lamia and 1.38 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 0.80 scored and 0.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Aris Thessalonikis in 20%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Lamia or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2022, when Aris Thessalonikis won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lamia
2
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Lamia 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 80%, Aris Thessalonikis 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Lamia) and 20% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 60%; Aris Thessalonikis in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Lamia's recent matches and 20% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Lamia's recent games and 20% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out Lamia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Lamia 0-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.23 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.38 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 1.04 / defence 1.29 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 31% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 80%, Aris Thessalonikis 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.