Lamia 0-2 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host AEK Athens FC at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 5 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 0W 3D 4L from 7 home games — 0.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AEK Athens FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AEK Athens FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamia register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, AEK Athens FC in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Lamia, 1 for AEK Athens FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with AEK Athens FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 53% versus AEK Athens FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 53% | AEK Athens FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.98 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.866 / defence 1.409 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.001 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.212. Data: 15 Lamia games / 15 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 22% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | AEK Athens FC 1.85. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 71% | AEK Athens FC 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 22% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Lamia 0.98 / AEK Athens FC 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.866 / def 1.409 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.001 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.71
AEK Athens FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:15 on Wednesday 5 January 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Lamia 0 - 2 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Lamia vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 22% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lamia and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.87) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
22%
4.62
24%
4.18
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.71
AEK Athens FC xG
4.62
22%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
4%
25.51
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lamia and 1.71 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (9W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.80 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.43 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lamia or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2024, when Lamia 0-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 71%, AEK Athens FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Lamia and 57% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 29% of games; AEK Athens FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lamia's games and 57% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Lamia's matches and 57% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Lamia and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.98 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.71 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.87 / defence 1.41 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 22% | Draw 24% | AEK Athens FC 54%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 53%, AEK Athens FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.