Kallithea 0-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kallithea face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kallithea host Atromitos at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 8 matches, Kallithea stand at 0W 5D 3L — 0.62 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Kallithea's home record over their last 3 home games: 0W 2D 1L (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atromitos's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kallithea 0.62 PPG, Atromitos 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Kallithea trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Atromitos trading profile (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kallithea 50% and Atromitos 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kallithea 38% | Atromitos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kallithea 1.06 xG and Atromitos 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kallithea attack 0.892 / defence 1.289 | Atromitos attack 0.936 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.183. Kallithea's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Data: built from Kallithea's last 8 games and Atromitos's last 34.
Result probabilities: Kallithea 27% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 44%. Fair-value odds: Kallithea 3.76 | Draw 3.41 | Atromitos 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kallithea 67% (last 3 home games) | Atromitos 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kallithea vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kallithea 27% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Kallithea 1.06 / Atromitos 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Kallithea attack 0.892 / def 1.289 | Atromitos attack 0.936 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Kallithea xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Atromitos xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kallithea vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Kallithea vs Atromitos kick off?
Kallithea vs Atromitos kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Kallithea vs Atromitos?
Kallithea 0 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Kallithea vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Kallithea vs Atromitos part of?
Kallithea vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kallithea vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Kallithea a 27% chance of winning, Atromitos a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kallithea vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kallithea and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kallithea vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kallithea's attack rating (0.89) and Atromitos's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Kallithea's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kallithea's last 8 games and Atromitos's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
27%
3.76
29%
3.41
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Kallithea xG
Total xG
2.49
1.43
Atromitos xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
15%
6.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kallithea vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kallithea vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Kallithea and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Kallithea and 1.43 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Kallithea vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Kallithea have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 0W 5D 3L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Atromitos's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kallithea on 0.62 PPG, Atromitos on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kallithea have posted 0.67 PPG from their last 3 home games (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Atromitos have gone 1W 1D 1L from their last 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kallithea are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos in 75%.
Defensively: Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kallithea
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Kallithea (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kallithea
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Kallithea vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Kallithea and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Kallithea have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kallithea at home or Atromitos away?
Atromitos's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kallithea at home: 0.67 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Kallithea or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kallithea have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Atromitos in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kallithea
0
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Kallithea vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kallithea and Atromitos?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Kallithea have won 1, Atromitos have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kallithea and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2025: Atromitos 1-2 Kallithea.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kallithea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kallithea at 67%, Atromitos at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kallithea) and 33% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Kallithea keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kallithea have failed to score in 33% of games; Atromitos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kallithea home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kallithea vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kallithea and Atromitos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kallithea's games and 67% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kallithea and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kallithea's recent games and 33% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kallithea and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Kallithea's recent matches and 100% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atromitos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kallithea.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Kallithea 0-3 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kallithea 1.06 xG and Atromitos 1.43 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kallithea fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kallithea attack 0.89 / defence 1.29 against Atromitos attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kallithea 27% | Draw 29% | Atromitos 44%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kallithea 38%, Atromitos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kallithea's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kallithea 0.62 PPG, Atromitos 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Kallithea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.